Ever since their humiliating loss across the board in 2016, and their special elections losses in 2017, Democrats have turned their eyes towards the 2018 midterm elections as their chance to turn around a long run of bad luck.
However, winning back the House and the Senate won’t be as easy as they think. In fact, it might just be impossible for Democrats to take back the Senate, according to Democrat strategist James Carville.
“I think right now most Democrats are trying to focus on the 2018 elections and trying to recruit people and keep incumbents, and you know I would say we have a pretty good chance of taking the House back. The Senate is very, very difficult,” Carville explained in an interview with John Catsimatidis on AM 970 in New York.
Carville explained that many of the Senate seats that are up for election in 2018 are in areas where Trump did extremely well in 2016, making the possibility of a Democratic sweep unlikely.
“The problem in the Senate is we have a large number of seats we have to hold in states that Donald Trump carried. Indiana, Missouri, you know, places like that we have to hold seats,” he said.
Republicans now have a 52-seat majority in the Senate and the Democrats need to pick off three seats in order to gain a majority — an unlikely prospect at this point.
“The only places where we have an opportunity for pick up are, you know, Nevada is pretty good. After that Arizona is less good, then you’re down to Texas and Alabama, and for Democrats to win the Senate back, they have to pick up three seats,” he explained.
You can listen to his remarks here. Carville’s comments on the Senate begin at the 1:00 mark.
Right now the Republicans in the Senate are struggling to pass their health care bill, which hasn’t exactly endeared them to many voters.
However, if the Republicans can actually keep their promise to overhaul Obamacare the American people, then they may be much safer in 2018 than they are right now.
Of course anything is possible between now and 2018. Trying to predict too far into the future is a pretty risky strategy. We’ve all seen over the past year just how wrong predictions about elections and what “should” happen can be.
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